Human-caused climate change has significantly intensified the recent heat wave scorching the Southwestern United States, Mexico, and Central America. A new flash study by World Weather Attribution has revealed that this killer heat wave was made 35 times more likely and 2.5 degrees hotter (1.4 degrees Celsius) due to the warming effects of burning coal, oil, and natural gas.
“It’s an oven here; you can’t stay here,” said 82-year-old Margarita Salazar Pérez from Veracruz, Mexico. With no air conditioning, Margarita has felt the brunt of the heat wave firsthand. Last week, the Sonoran Desert reached a staggering 125 degrees (51.9 degrees Celsius), marking the hottest day in Mexican history, according to study co-author Shel Winkley, a meteorologist at Climate Central.
The Deadly Night Heat
The situation worsens at night, making this heat wave particularly deadly. Imperial College of London climate scientist Friederike Otto, who coordinates the attribution study team, explained that climate change has made nighttime temperatures 2.9 degrees (1.6 degrees Celsius) warmer and unusual evening heat 200 times more likely. “There’s just been no cool air at night like people are used to,” Salazar Pérez noted, emphasizing the importance of cooler night temperatures for surviving such heat waves.
At least 125 people have died so far, according to the World Weather Attribution team. “This is clearly related to climate change, the level of intensity that we are seeing, these risks,” said study co-author Karina Izquierdo, a Mexico City-based urban advisor for the Red Cross and Red Crescent Climate Centre.
A New Normal?
What’s alarming about this heat wave is that it’s no longer considered extraordinary. “From a weather perspective, it wasn’t rare, but the impacts were actually really bad,” Otto told The Associated Press. The study found that such heat waves are now four times more likely to occur than in the year 2000, when temperatures were nearly a degree (0.5 degrees Celsius) cooler.
Otto pointed out that comparing the current situation to the year 2000 is more striking than looking back to pre-industrial times. “We’re looking at a shifting baseline - what was once extreme but rare is becoming increasingly common,” said University of Southern California Marine Studies Chair Carly Kenkel, who wasn’t part of the study.
The Scope of the Study
The study examined a vast region, including Southern California, Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, and Honduras, focusing on the hottest five consecutive days and nights. For most areas, this period ranged from June 3 to 7 for days and June 5 to 9 for nights, though some places experienced peak heat starting May 26.
In San Angelo, Texas, temperatures hit a record 111 degrees (43.8 degrees Celsius) on June 4. Corpus Christi saw record-breaking nighttime temperatures above 80 degrees (26.7 degrees Celsius) between June 2 and 6, with two nights never dropping below 85 degrees (29.4 degrees Celsius).
Meteorological Causes and Social Implications
The immediate meteorological cause was a high-pressure system over central Mexico, which blocked cooling storms and clouds before moving to the U.S. Southwest. Tropical Storm Alberto, heading towards northern Mexico and southern Texas, may bring some relief with rains.
Mexico has been grappling with drought, water shortages, and extreme heat for months.
The heat wave has exacerbated existing inequalities, as the ability to cool down depends on financial comfort. Margarita Salazar Pérez has been quite uncomfortable during this heat wave, highlighting the disparity between rich and poor.
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Dave Rohee, Enthusiast and Blogger
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